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Prediction for CME (2025-11-10T09:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-10T09:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42575/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2, SOHO LASCO C3, and GOES CCOR-1 and wide CME seen predominantly to the northeast in STEREO A COR2A in association with an eruptive X1.2-class solar flare from Active Region 14274 (N25W16). The solar flare is best seen in GOES SUVI 131 and a faint circular EUV wave is seen propagating shortly following the flare in GOES SUVI 195 and 284 angstrom imagers.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-11T22:11Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-12T06:00Z (-5.24h, +4.22h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 99.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
Time of Launch: 2025/11/10 09:25Z
Plane of Sky 1: 13:00Z; 21.5Rsun; N Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 13:30Z; 21.5Rsun; S Direction
POS Difference: 00:30
POS Midpoint: 13:15Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 3:50

Numeric View/Impact Type: +2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~11.63
Travel Time: ~11.63 * 3:50 = 44:35

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-11-12T06:00Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/11/10 13:24Z
Lead Time: 29.42 hour(s)
Difference: -7.82 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-11-10T16:46Z
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